Boiling the Frog — Germany, Ukraine, and Escalation (with Wolfgang Schmidt)

Show notes

In this episode of The Art of Diplomacy, Josh Yaffa speaks with Wolfgang Schmidt, former Head of the German Chancellery and one of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s closest advisers during the first years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Schmidt offers a rare behind-the-scenes account of how Germany navigated the most consequential foreign policy crisis in Europe since the end of the Cold War. He reflects on the origins of the Zeitenwende speech, the difficult decisions around military support for Ukraine, and the challenge of balancing solidarity with the risks of escalation. The conversation explores one of the central strategic debates of the war: whether Western support successfully “boiled the frog” by increasing pressure on Russia step by step, or whether it amounted to “killing Ukraine softly” by providing enough aid to survive, but not enough to win decisively. Schmidt also discusses Germany’s efforts to keep Europe united, the diplomacy that led China to publicly oppose nuclear threats by Russia, and the prisoner exchange that secured the release of Evan Gershkovich and other political prisoners held in Russia. Drawing on his experience at the center of German government, Schmidt reflects on the realities of decision-making under uncertainty and on what diplomacy can achieve when every option carries risks. For the introduction to this episode, Florence Gaub is joined by Joshua Yaffa, who conducted the conversation with Wolfgang Schmidt on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.

This episode was recorded at the Munich Security Conference in February 2026.

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GLOSSARY

• Nuclear signalling is a key element of nuclear deterrence, including deliberate actions, statements, or military measures by states to communicate their nuclear capabilities and intentions in order to influence the behavior of others. (https://www.cgai.ca/war_in_ukraine_nuclear_signalling_coercion_and_deterrence)
• Tactical nuclear weapons are smaller nuclear warheads and delivery systems intended for use on the battlefield or for a limited strike. (https://www.britannica.com/technology/tactical-nuclear-weapon)
• Bali Declaration: Final document issued by leaders at the G20 Summit 2022, in which most countries condemned Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and all countries present—including Russia—agreed that the use or threat of nuclear weapons is not permitted. (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/60201/2022-11-16-g20-declaration-data.pdf)