The End of an Era, The Beginning of Another (with Wolfgang Ischinger)

00:00:11: Europe needs to step up and has to take power.

00:00:22: The

00:00:29: Art of Diplomacy, the official podcast.

00:00:41: Hello, this is Joshua Yaffa.

00:00:42: Welcome to the season finale of The First Season Of The Art Of Diplomacy!

00:00:47: Thanks for listening so far.

00:00:48: It's been a wonderful series of conversations with really interesting people who've worked at the heart... ...of the biggest questions about diplomacy and security.

00:00:55: it has been a pleasure Florentz & I To get to talk with them And bring those conversations to all of you.

00:01:00: For this last episode we're doing something special.

00:01:03: Florendz & i both are in the studio talking together With very special guest.

00:01:07: Wolfgang Ischinger served as Germany's ambassador to both the United States and The United Kingdom, was State Secretary at the German Foreign Office.

00:01:15: And played key roles in negotiations ranging from the Dayton Peace Accords To the Kosovo Tonks.

00:01:20: For more than fifteen years he also chaired the Munich Security Conference Helping turn it into one of world leading forums for international security and diplomacy.

00:01:28: A few people like Ambassador Ischenger have witnessed so many pivotal moments In diplomatic history first hand or reflected on what diplomacy can achieve when it's at its best.

00:01:38: In our conversation with Foraz, Ambassador Ishingar talks about a ground-zero moment for diplomacy as he calls it—a time where one era has passed and new one is being built —and with whom better to discuss its promises potential in challenges than one of Diplomacy's most storied practitioners?

00:01:54: So for the final episode this first season we're delighted.

00:01:57: welcome Ambassador Wolfgang Ishinger!

00:02:00: So

00:02:10: welcome to our podcast, Wolfgang Ischinger.

00:02:13: Great to be on your program today!

00:02:14: And also of course my co-host Josh.

00:02:16: Hey Josh how are you?

00:02:17: Nice to see you Florons.

00:02:19: thanks for coming Ambassador Ischniger.

00:02:21: Let's just jump right into a conversation with you Wolfgang.

00:02:25: looking at your CV the other day I felt like you've been literally in every crisis.

00:02:31: So looking back at your career, what are moments that particularly spring to mind in terms of crisis person moment or a lesson?

00:02:40: Is there one thing you think is the top-of-your-head when it comes to art and diplomacy.

00:02:45: A moment I remember more in greater detail than any other was the sequence on how to deal with parties during the Bosnian War who were in those days, in nineteen ninety four ninety five unable or unwilling to talk to each other.

00:03:07: So how do you organize a peace conference if these people are unable to communicate with each other?

00:03:14: Of course we did then and books have been written about it.

00:03:17: We didn't figure out How To Do That via so-called proximity talks but taking you know proximity talks where You speak the one party take A message to The Other Room back and forth, that's of course a cumbersome project.

00:03:33: So what I remember most intensely was how we finally managed.

00:03:40: when i say we...I mean the negotiator is Richard Holbrook his British French other colleagues including myself ...how we then managed to convince these Balkan parties to conflict actually sit at one table start having meaningful discussions.

00:04:00: That was literally the opening day of The Dayton Conference, where then President Milosevic and President Tuchman and President Issa Begovic were finally agreeing to sit around a table under a lot of pressure from the Americans —and all of us—.

00:04:18: that kind of diplomatic breakthrough I have to admit learned a lot in those hours and days preceding, following that particular opening shot if I remember correctly on the first of November of nineteen ninety five.

00:04:34: Can i just follow up with this idea of proximity talks because it's basically you walk back-and forth or drive?

00:04:41: How close to each other do people have to be for that to be proximity?

00:04:45: did you walk literally from one room to another where they're in a same building?

00:04:49: yeah there are different models.

00:04:51: when we finally ended up being dated You have to think of this air base, which is huge and it was early November.

00:05:00: It was ice cold below zero temperatures in northern Ohio.

00:05:04: you did not really want to go for a walk outside but the Bosnian Muslim group was one part.

00:05:16: Serbs were in a different building and we the Europeans where in yet another building.

00:05:21: In other words, We had to walk across the lawn across the parks of tarmac all the time.

00:05:28: so it took like two days until everybody, literally everyone had a cold.

00:05:36: That was the automatic first result of the proximity dogs in Dayton that everybody caught a cold.

00:05:42: because you simply have no time to put on a warm overcoat and maybe hat in this very cold weather running into the serb compound then back to the Croatian compound back to send a message home, to your instruction givers in my case.

00:06:02: In Bonn still not yet in Berlin etc.

00:06:05: so it was a combination of terrible weather, terrible atmosphere lots of hostility... It was really a miracle that we got something going!

00:06:17: So

00:06:17: I want to go the beginning of your career.

00:06:19: you arrived at The United Nations around the time of the Yom Kippur war, right?

00:06:24: So in nineteen seventy three.

00:06:27: What did that feel like?

00:06:28: take us back to that time because I think people underestimate their huge tension and especially you were at the UN at the center or well where people will actually meeting.

00:06:39: what was it like?

00:06:40: Well if i may add I'd like to share a little anecdote.

00:06:44: You know I had spent the preceding year at Harvard Law School of what practical diplomacy is all about.

00:06:52: So I was really a newcomer, I was a lowly junior assistant to the then Secretary General for United Nations and had no idea what's going on here.

00:07:03: What i do remember because I know that I'm the youngest in this team.

00:07:08: so it would be better if you arrived at your office very early morning to make an impression.

00:07:18: at that time, in the summer and autumn of seventy-three there was a one star Finnish general who had the proud title of military advisor to the secretary General.

00:07:32: And I will never forget how in the early morning... I forgot which date it is!

00:07:38: ...I just arrived from the office running up and down the hallway on the thirty-eighth floor of the UN building, which is the floor of Secretary General.

00:07:49: And he was shouting as loudly as he could!

00:07:53: They are fighting and shooting in the Middle

00:07:57: East!".

00:07:58: It sounded like if he were really positively excited about it... Of course from his point of view this was finally a moment where he had something Meaningful to do because he knew from now on they'll listen.

00:08:12: To me.

00:08:13: They want to hear for me what are the syrians doing?

00:08:15: What is the Egyptian army doing etc, etc.

00:08:18: So it was a totally exciting moment.

00:08:21: The only person I remember in those days who was happy person Was my Finnish general because you know everybody else was devastated.

00:08:32: But the really interesting strategic point like to make this in those things the United Nations actually mattered.

00:08:41: I mean, when I compare that to today within not within hours but within days of the outbreak of the war in seventy-three The Secretary of State Of The United States of America by name Dr Henry Kissinger showed up In the UN building.

00:09:00: we felt at least We felt maybe historians will say That's Not Entirely True But we felt as if were at the center of things that are happening, that UN mattered.

00:09:12: And I'm afraid i would conclude in today's world when you look around Iran and Ukraine etc... Of course U.N continues to matter but not where central decisions or discussions are taking place regrettably so thats really one major difference between fine between those days, fifty years ago or so and today.

00:09:38: Also at the time I'm guessing everybody was still smoking in the UN building because i remember when I visited the UN headquarters and saw that they had their asterisk everywhere but nobody's smoking anymore... But you could then smoke in the U.N Security Council?

00:09:52: That is absolutely true.

00:09:53: it also threw throughout the nineteen eighties actually what we call the Morgenrunde, The Morning Briefing in the German Foreign Ministry where usually the minister himself his deputies and heads of various services were meeting for an hour or so.

00:10:14: First this was men only Of course, not a single woman in any meaningful senior position.

00:10:22: In the German foreign ministry of the nineteen seventies.

00:10:25: second everybody was smoking and after that meeting you know Windows needed to be opened because You could hardly see The guy on the other side of the table Because of thick smoke.

00:10:39: That happened every day You know, it's difficult to imagine that today but that is the way was.

00:10:46: And people were even smoking pipes and cigars at nine thirty in the morning!

00:10:52: It wasn't unusual.

00:10:54: Listening for those two comments back-to-back I can help with wonder... Correlation or causality?

00:10:59: In the UNs loss of relevance Related or coincidental?

00:11:09: Definitely worth exploring.

00:11:10: But Wolfgang, since you brought up the foreign ministry that brings me actually to a question related to Hans-Dietrich Genscher who was of course an eminent figure in Cold War diplomacy.

00:11:21: he was a German Foreign Minister.

00:11:23: what do you think made him so outstanding and having worked with him closely What do you thing?

00:11:31: it is about

00:11:32: his quality.

00:11:35: Most people don't know this, but Hans du Dich Genscher had an incredible memory.

00:11:41: I don't what the English term for it is, can one speak of a photographic memory?

00:11:48: He would be able to say as his assistant he'd said twenty years ago that on page two or three in my speech text Go and look up that speech, make sure I remember the sentence correctly.

00:12:08: In those days there was no Google or internet.

00:12:12: you'd have to go into archives for that speech from twenty years ago And sure enough each time we had to undertake something like this turns out.

00:12:24: he has absolutely totally including the commas and exclamation marks.

00:12:30: He had it precisely stored in his memory.

00:12:33: That is, of course for someone who deals with foreign policy a hugely important thing because some people believe that diplomacy is mostly about talking.

00:12:46: but diplomacy is also about knowing exactly what the precise text and meaning are not only in Article V or the NATO treaty.

00:12:59: if you know your texts the fundamental text, the treaty texts etc.

00:13:04: you're going to be in a much better position than the guy who needs to ask his assistant go find me that particular text and which will then uh... we brought him fifteen twenty minutes later.

00:13:15: so there was an outstanding quality of it i have not ever seen with anyone coming even close together.

00:13:23: The other quality made him somewhat special is he had uncanny ability of building trust.

00:13:33: I'll give you an example at some point.

00:13:36: in his long career as foreign minister, His French counterpart was Roland Dumas right?

00:13:44: Roland Duma was a french Foreign Minister for a long time also and Genscher found out that Roland Duman was a fan of Richard Wagner.

00:13:57: And then Roland Dumas had for many years, you know not as a French official but privately Not wearing a formal dress in his sweater.

00:14:07: He attended the Bayreuth Wagner Festival For Many Years.

00:14:12: Not for the formal opening But during the month of August or so.

00:14:17: So here's what Genshah did.

00:14:19: Gensha said Roland I'm going to take You To The Formal Opening Of The Bayreut Festival And I'll make sure that you have tickets and can bring whoever you like from your family or ministry for the three, four of five following days.

00:14:37: We will take care of accommodation

00:14:39: etc.,

00:14:40: we use them mornings to discuss between me and you in a long walk.

00:14:46: In other words he responded with this intense desire by Orno de Ma to listen to Wagner's music And he benefited from these long discussions with Ronald de Ma walking around in the outskirts of Bayreuth, and they became real friends.

00:15:12: That ability to build friendships or create trust was something that I found exceptional.

00:15:21: It helped, of course a lot when the time came off.

00:15:26: The wall coming down

00:15:27: etc.,

00:15:28: where trust really played a hugely important role.

00:15:31: Roland de Ma was one of those who played an important role then as did Jim Baker and Genscher couldn't take Jim Baker to Bayreuth because Baker wasn't interested in Wagner but they had found other areas of common interest.

00:15:47: so building trust is something where Gensho really excelled.

00:15:53: Ambassador Ishinger, I'll take Florence's lead and call you Wolfgang if that's alright?

00:15:57: That's absolutely okay!

00:15:59: Good... You've had this long remarkable career going back to the time of The Cold War.

00:16:03: we heard about the Yom Kippur war stretching into this period of optimism even triumphalism of the post-Cold War now all the way to this much more fragmented moment under destruction.

00:16:15: afterall was the theme the point I want to dig in on a bit and talk with you about.

00:16:21: We've explored this theme throughout our season, whether it's the rupture in the words of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney or as Florence put earlier Europe growing up?

00:16:31: And I wanna ask you how that looks and feels in practice can give us sense of the flavor diplomatic conversations happening today.

00:16:41: what has changed for what is notable?

00:16:46: talk to each other now behind closed doors.

00:16:48: Are there new dilemmas or tensions that dominate the room in a way they didn't some years before?

00:16:56: That's another great question, first of all I think that most significant shift at least as far is Europe and European diplomats leaders are concerned.

00:17:16: We used to think that we could build, and had actually come a long way.

00:17:23: Had we not?

00:17:24: In the direction of building reliable permanently valid institutional arrangements in the European or Euro-Atlantic space... ...that would make conflicts especially with the use of military force impossible!

00:17:42: That was the idea and Spannungspolitik in the German translation was a guiding principle.

00:17:49: And we tended to underestimate or even neglect, their need for your diplomatic work underpinned by at least some degree of military capacity.

00:18:05: so what I would say is that as representative that began professionally to be engaged in diplomacy, I believed we had come a long way into building this institutional framework.

00:18:25: Strong institutions and so-called rules based international order which would actually make it less important to have the capacity act militarily.

00:18:42: Actually i'd say Looking at where we are today, I would say my generation looks at ground zero of this effort.

00:18:52: Of building reliable arrangements including for example arms control?

00:18:58: I mean i was involved in literally dozens of arms control discussions and negotiations etc.

00:19:05: And of course none of that is an existence to day anymore not even the famous US Russian treaty arrangements.

00:19:13: So ground zero, and I think that what the next generation of diplomats will want to do hopefully is try to rebuild from Ground Zero trying to look at opportunities to start... At some point maybe not in the spring of twenty-twenty six but hopefully rather sooner than later.

00:19:39: arms control again, or at least about confidence-building measures and about institutions.

00:19:45: There is still an organization called the OSCE in Vienna but it's on life support.

00:19:55: so can this be reawakened?

00:20:00: In other words I think that next generation of diplomats has as exciting a series of challenges in front them, as my generation did when they taunt arrived on the horizon early in the early seventies or so.

00:20:17: That was exciting because we seem to be looking at a possibility to manage the Cold War maybe reduce the dangers of military confrontation and establish rules based international order.

00:20:32: but again right now I look this is ground zero.

00:20:37: It's terribly sad.

00:20:39: A generation effort has failed to

00:20:42: survive.".

00:20:43: Yeah, a couple of questions about that failure... That is the strong and very interesting word you've used given.

00:20:49: European-American relations are both at the core of MSC DNA its origins And also very much embedded in themes for this podcast.

00:20:59: Perhaps you can recall your time as German ambassador conversation, some negotiations that were possible then.

00:21:09: That maybe now seem not just out of vogue but-but out of reach.

00:21:14: and thinking this theme Of under destruction that MSC was guided by what do you think has been lost?

00:21:22: And how?

00:21:24: in those ages... Perhaps you can recall something You are able to achieve or a dialogue with American counterparts In Washington that feels perhaps No longer possible, no longer within reach to today's diplomats.

00:21:37: Well

00:21:37: first of all I'd say you know let's be clear during my ambassadorial tour in Washington DC we had serious issues, serious disagreements the Iraq war My own Chancellor and President of the United States didn't want to talk with each other for many months, mutually accusing each other or having not spoken the truth etc.

00:22:00: So it was not always paradise even in those days.

00:22:04: but and here's a big part I think these disagreements during the George W Bush administration years never touched The basis of its the fundament Of what we thought NATO or the transatlantic relationship?

00:22:20: Was built upon.

00:22:20: I never came across during my years in Washington anyone who would have doubted the usefulness, the purpose.

00:22:30: The meaning of United States presence in Europe militarily and politically.

00:22:38: My late friend Richard Holbrook had published a piece at Foreign Affairs ten years earlier In ninety three if i recall correctly entitled America as a European power.

00:22:55: And he argued in this piece that there were overwhelmingly strong reasons for the United States to stay engaged in Europe, these where of course years off the Balkan wars etc.

00:23:07: I think what has changed and we don't have today would be had in the nineties and certainly during my ambassadorial time.

00:23:17: Washington is believe We have a common purpose.

00:23:21: Uh, we share the common purpose which is to defend security and freedom of our democratic institutions.

00:23:36: What I note now Is that my American interlocutors Now those from the Trump administration They tell me why do you always need talk about these values?

00:23:47: Let's only talk about interests.

00:23:50: So, can a relationship based only on interests be as valid and as survivable?

00:23:59: As the one that we thought were building in previous decades namely certainly based on mutual interest but also with strong emphasis of common values.

00:24:11: I think this is probably too early to come up answer to this question, but that is what I see.

00:24:21: That has really changed.

00:24:23: We don't have this common purpose anymore.

00:24:27: Finally let me just add a footnote to this.

00:24:30: it may actually be the case that this is good because The common purpose that i believed in my generation believed In of course has kept has Actually kept Europe from doing What europe should Have done A long time ago Namely growing up.

00:24:46: So in a way what is now happening, in a painful manner the only wish I would have was it wouldn't been so much nicer if this could've happened in more harmonious ways.

00:24:57: What we are going through right now Is this European trajectory into adulthood?

00:25:04: If you want to call that from adolescence into adulthood.

00:25:08: but it's painful because We were ill-prepared for it.

00:25:13: Question on the painful nature And I wonder what your diplomatic take is on this.

00:25:18: and i've heard an argument which,I find interesting if not convincing that actually the delivery had to be unpleasant for The message To Actually Get Across That you Had Successive American Leaders Robert Gates Defense Secretary Barack Obama Himself We Could Go On And On And Name All of the Americans Over The Years Said Europe Has To Do More Europe has to Grow Up Perhaps Even Use That Exact Phrase But It Was Delivered In A Form Of a friendly embrace, shall we say?

00:25:46: And that the message actually had to contain this unpleasant character for it to register.

00:25:52: That otherwise in fact a message which would have never really gotten through at all.

00:25:56: people would've paid attention to good feelings so-to speak and come into form of something difficult here or on board.

00:26:05: I don't know what you think about that.

00:26:07: is particular circumstance Or general idea sometimes counterintuitively Good.

00:26:14: diplomacy requires being a bit

00:26:17: rough,

00:26:18: putting your elbows out ready to offend and upset your interlocutor because that can actually be more efficient way of delivering the message.

00:26:26: That needs deliver otherwise might get lost.

00:26:28: is there time in place for an almost rudeness in diplomacy?

00:26:31: Yes absolutely you know.

00:26:33: throwing door shut so pictures fall from wall proven element demonstrating anger and shouting at each other.

00:26:46: But it's got to be tactical, for the purpose of reaching a meaningful

00:26:51: objective.".

00:26:53: I would agree with you absolutely that probably pain needed come in this case because the reason why we finally started to react didn't really just came from Donald Trump but from Vladimir Putin.

00:27:10: It was the destruction of the rules-based order, the invasion of Ukraine taking Crimea that started a process where it began to dawn on us.

00:27:23: that Bob Gates had a point when he said, I forget when it was in twenty twelve or twenty fourteen his valedictorian speech as secretary of defense.

00:27:33: When they say you guys need to know this cannot go on like this.

00:27:37: You've got do more about your own thing.

00:27:39: and we were sort of shrugging our shoulders And thought yeah He's not the first one who says but But We don't really see A convincing reason why should spend alot more.

00:27:51: So Yeah And if that's the correct analysis, then of course it is our own fault.

00:27:56: It's absolutely our own thought.

00:27:59: I would add That there are different shades among European countries between European countries Different shades of military preparedness or doing what you actually need to do in order To make sure your country can defend itself.

00:28:19: i'm impressed for example when my Finnish friends, how Finland has of course with its own history being a neighbor the former Soviet Union and Russia.

00:28:31: How Finland even through all these years of relative detente maintained It's comprehensive defense efforts, civil defence bunkers for the people storing water and batteries for electricity etc.

00:28:50: This is stuff which we used to have in my own country during the Cold War but it was purposely eliminated from our daily lives and from our memories because we thought paradise had arrived.

00:29:05: Let me remind you that in the aftermath of German unification, at the aftermath for the demise of the former Soviet Union, German politicians were proud to be able say they are now only surrounded by friends!

00:29:23: That was a very popular thing to say for even the German defense minister of that time, Volker Rüger.

00:29:29: And I don't blame him because he meant it.

00:29:32: unfortunately in retrospect It's not an historic understanding where we are and what might be going on.

00:29:42: So yeah...it is tough lesson.

00:29:44: The pain needed to come has now arrived finally beginning to grow up.

00:29:51: I

00:29:53: wanted to return quickly to this notion of values you were talking about a few moments ago.

00:29:58: The UNIC Security Conference itself has been long guided by this motto or idea, listen to one another don't lecture or ignore One Another.

00:30:08: and i want to ask how that works in practice In difficult cases whether looking at Vladimir Putin's infamous two thousand seven speech To the moment after the invasion of Ukraine when Russian representatives Were disinvited had a representation that Munich was then disinvited, than invited back this past year.

00:30:28: Iran at various points has had representatives at the conference and

00:30:32: uninvited.".

00:30:33: And I wonder how does placing the limits of dialogue work in practice?

00:30:42: When and where do you decide that dialogue even with very difficult partners.

00:30:46: is antagonists in some way or antagonist on values level remains necessary, and when does it become impossible or even dangerous or counterproductive?

00:30:55: Well

00:30:55: look I think you've got to make a distinction between what has become known.

00:31:02: And what is being practiced generally today in terms of diplomacy which is essentially public diplomacy.

00:31:09: You announce that your president is traveling to China.

00:31:13: at every word Which he utters on the way during his trip after the trip is being broadcast and shared worldwide.

00:31:23: That's one way of conducting diplomacy, but there is a second way of diplomacy which is quiet diplomacy... ...which has somehow become you know thing-of-the-past it no longer used we use to have The United States used to have.

00:31:39: We used to Have enormous success with what I would call back channel diplomacy Factional diplomacy, that's what Henry Kissinger did when he traveled to China.

00:31:52: That's what the German negotiator a goon bar.

00:31:56: Did when he travelled on behalf of Willy Brandt to Moscow?

00:32:01: To start talking and I wonder quite frankly why we need to broadcast Every single item before we even talk to the other side.

00:32:14: there is not actually a promising diplomatic approach, I would say if i still had an active role in managing European or for that matter German diplomacy.

00:32:30: Before we start talking as has happened recently who could considerably on behalf of Europeans negotiate with Putin?

00:32:38: Huge public debate!

00:32:40: In my view totally out-of-order.

00:32:45: who could conceivably be received in Moscow, I would send someone to Moscow without letting anyone know.

00:32:56: Behind closed doors, Emmanuel Macron did that some months ago.

00:33:01: he sent, I think, Emmanuel Bond to Moscow.

00:33:04: but once again it was not a true back channel.

00:33:07: It was publicly announced and the result was disappointing.

00:33:12: so The point I'm trying to make here is, let's use more classic quiet diplomacy behind closed doors and make a press announcement when you have the result announced.

00:33:24: Don't announce that you're going travel to Moscow.

00:33:28: Announce your Binto-Moscow and you've achieved following results!

00:33:32: That my preferred style of diplomacy.

00:33:35: if we currently have many people say, what usefulness would any discussion with the Kremlin have given the fact that they have a track record of breaking every agreement etc.

00:33:51: The total lack of trust?

00:33:53: So in that particular situation you've got to do the back channel and figure out a way To be able to communicate at some point That we starting point, maybe from which we can have meaningful conversations with the other side.

00:34:15: I think it's not good that there has been... Not very successful but at least they've had US-Russian discussions about how to end Ukraine war and i find totally unacceptable.

00:34:28: these discussions are being conducted without active participation of European representatives.

00:34:36: And if the United States doesn't want European representatives to be part of their team, then we should figure out a way... ...to do it on our own.

00:34:44: But again I would say not in that way that Kushner and Wittkopf have done it announcing tomorrow morning they'll fly to Moscow.

00:34:52: No!

00:34:55: So actually,

00:34:56: that brings me to a question I was going ask you anyway.

00:34:59: You describe time when we talk about Genscher but also Bosnia where diplomacy is defined by trust or personal relationships and being behind closed doors in this day-and-age.

00:35:13: We have social polarization with social media as well so do you think it makes things harder?

00:35:23: I think the answer is yes.

00:35:25: The way you say it, do also thing that's kind of wrong?

00:35:28: Is there a lot choice left for diplomats in these days?

00:35:31: can they just go back to model as you describe or even an option?

00:35:34: No we live in different world but let me remind you That There were times In early Cold War More than half century ago Where was also A rather complete lack of trust where enormous concern, if not outright fear of military conflict.

00:35:59: You know I was a kid when on the other side of the Inner German border there were three hundred and fifty thousand Soviet troops equipped with nuclear weapons of all kinds And they where it was an equal number of US and other nuclear weapons in West Germany.

00:36:17: This is awful!

00:36:19: There's no trust.

00:36:20: But at some point, people started realizing that maybe there was not a good way of going forward.

00:36:27: So opportunities will arise and I'm disappointed we have been able to create the conditions which would lead decision makers in Moscow to conclude that the continued use of their military in the Ukraine invasion will lead to no further advantage for Russia, except more casualties.

00:37:02: And therefore maybe time has come from a Russian point-of view to sit down and negotiate seriously.

00:37:07: take what's available right now but would require determined combined Western effort, Europeans and Americans to tell the Russians we will not allow you get this country to go under.

00:37:21: Full stop!

00:37:23: And just remember that if you don't believe it next month maybe you'll believe in next month.

00:37:29: Unfortunately recent signals especially from United States have in my view been correct.

00:37:37: best signal that arrived in Moscow.

00:37:40: If Moscow can conclude, ah America is not deploying another five thousand soldiers to Europe or America's actually withdrawing soldiers and not deploying certain types of weapons?

00:37:52: That's exactly what we have wanted.

00:37:55: We Russians since the days of Brezhnev namely that America withdraws from Europe.

00:38:01: they're starting to do that.

00:38:03: let's continue our path.

00:38:05: In other words I think there There's a risk that messages arrive in Moscow from the West to put it diplomatically not helpful.

00:38:17: I'm interested in this idea of back-channel diplomacy, perhaps you have a brief anecdote or episode from your own career?

00:38:23: Or simply from the annals of diplomacy where back channel diplomacy was either particularly impactful or just played an interesting role and had interesting particulars?

00:38:32: is there case that comes to mind as the kind of uber example of back channel diplomacy?

00:38:38: Spontaneously.

00:38:39: what comes to my is a very small thing, which you could argue was an example.

00:38:50: At some point when Richard Holbrook approval in the US Senate for U.S budget contribution to United Nations, he figured out interesting ways of getting that job done.

00:39:17: For example He called me one night at like three a.m German time and said could you maybe get your Chancellor or Foreign Minister to call Mr.

00:39:30: A or Mr B in Washington, or the US Senate?

00:39:34: In other words he used his European connections what was essentially an internal American problem of getting senators to agree, the administration's budget proposal.

00:39:51: And I thought that wasn't incredibly smart back-channel approach actually...I'm not sure my intervention is meaningful or helped any but he managed even though most hostile senator from Louisiana also finally agreed or accepted this budget proposal.

00:40:12: And it's this kind of, you know the diplomatic use off your network... ...of unusual and ways that normally would not even be able to think-off.. ..that makes brilliant diplomats brilliant!

00:40:28: And Richard Holbrook was a brilliant diplomat.

00:40:30: so I'm glad you gave me a chance to talk briefly about him because he was one of the best.

00:40:35: So Wolfgang we've been through a lot of really hard moments of diplomatic history, and I want to end with you on rather fun note.

00:40:44: I brought a little game for you which might know it's called Would You Rather?

00:40:48: And we're gonna play it.

00:40:49: regarding diplomacy!

00:40:50: You have to choose would-you-rather.

00:40:52: if you could travel in time attend the Congress of Vienna or Yalta conference

00:40:59: I think i'd rather attend the Congress of Vienna.

00:41:01: That must have been because there was not much, you know nice dinners and balls in Yalta.

00:41:09: Vienna I think was entertaining.

00:41:12: So socially more entertaining?

00:41:13: Exactly!

00:41:14: Could've gone for a swim though...

00:41:16: Then would you rather have negotiated The Versailles Treaty or the Munich Agreement?

00:41:22: Oh well..the Versaille treaty?

00:41:25: oh yeah Yeah Because it Of course hugely important.

00:41:29: The result was not, you know the best achievable but it was a hugely important moment after World War One.

00:41:36: I truly wish i could have had a role that must've been great moment for good and even brilliant diplomats more than Munich Munich one.

00:41:47: Yeah, maybe the potential was bigger in Versailles to get something good out of it than in Munich.

00:41:52: Last but not least would you rather represent a multilateral institution like NATO or nation-state?

00:41:58: Like Germany?

00:41:59: clearly

00:42:00: a Multilateral or multi multinational Institution.

00:42:04: The one that I would love to represent would be the European Union Or whatever future organization can be imagined to help defend Europe, because I think that's the exciting diplomatic job for the future.

00:42:24: Seen from Shanghai or from Chicago... The current members of the European Union look like twenty-seven dwarfs and individually.

00:42:39: if we continue to believe that it matters if we the Estonians or the Cypriots, you know on the Greeks show up in Beijing.

00:42:50: Or in Washington If we believe individually can make a difference We will be listened to our interests I think were wrong.

00:42:59: So way forward is create institutions combine power of twenty-seven dwarfs.

00:43:08: The European Union has not done that yet in a sufficiently credible manner, but the potential is there.

00:43:15: And if representative of the European union could show up in the Oval Office and say look Mr President I know you represent three hundred fifty million Americans!

00:43:25: i happen to represent four hundred and fifty million Europeans.

00:43:28: so let's make a deal.

00:43:30: That what i find exciting an exciting perspective as a european for diplomacy tomorrow.

00:43:39: I like to hear that.

00:43:40: So, That's it.

00:43:41: i think we have concluded our questions.

00:43:44: thank you Wolfgang.

00:43:45: so much for making time for us.

00:43:47: obviously Thank You For having this idea.

00:43:49: thanks a lot great really enjoyed This conversation.

00:43:52: well same here thank you.

00:43:53: Thanks Wolfgang.

00:43:54: bye-bye

00:43:54: take care!

00:43:56: You Have been listening To The

00:43:58: Art of

00:43:58: Diplomacy A podcast

00:44:00: Of the Munich Security Conference

00:44:03: Produced by Studio Bummens and Joshua Jaffa with original music by Jacob

00:44:12: Ilja.

00:44:13: The Munich Security

00:44:16: Conference production team includes Andreas Block, Marie Zeisler Judith Sorden Noor Saad Annalena Enold.

00:44:25: For more on this year's Munich Security

00:44:27: conference

00:44:28: And for footnotes

00:44:29: & references to the episode please consider our show notes.

00:44:33: Most of the conversations

00:44:35: in this podcast

00:44:36: were recorded at Bayr Shahov, At The Munich Security Conference In mid-February, twenty twenty six.

00:44:42: If you enjoyed this episode please follow the show and

00:44:44: leave a review.

00:44:46: That's it for today.

00:44:47: Thanks For Listening.